Stock picking champs 2025 - Unhedged Recap
Podcast: Unhedged
Published: 2026-01-15
Duration: 22 minutes
Guests: Alan Livesey
Summary
The episode reviews the results of the FT's 2025 stock picking contest, highlighting successful strategies and stocks, including mining and AI sectors, while also discussing the pitfalls of shorting major tech companies.
What Happened
The FT's 2025 stock picking contest results revealed that mining stocks, particularly those focused on silver, performed exceptionally well. The episode highlights one contestant who invested solely in silver mining stocks, achieving a remarkable return of over 200%. Fresnio, a FTSE 100 company known for gold and silver mining, was among the top performers with a 379% increase.
The hosts discuss how betting on silver was a strategic move given its high beta relationship to gold, which many investors overlooked. A short squeeze on silver towards the year's end, driven by potential import reductions to the U.S., also contributed to its stellar performance.
Quantum computing stocks, like D-Wave Quantum, were popular picks, although they did not match the returns of the mining sector. In contrast, attempts to short large tech companies such as NVIDIA and Alphabet resulted in losses for participants, as these companies remained strong performers.
Alan Livesey, the FT's asset management reporter, emerged as one of the top performers in the contest with an average return of 91%. He attributed his success to owning profitable junior gold stocks and strategically shorting GAM, an investment house with a damaged reputation, and Caring, a luxury group facing challenges in China.
Katie Martin celebrated her strong performance, finishing fourth within the FT, by investing in European defense companies, which had a robust year. Rob Armstrong adopted a conservative approach, focusing on S&P 500 stocks and achieving a 23% return, largely driven by his investment in Alphabet.
The discussion reveals that while some participants pursued high-risk strategies, others found success with more traditional picks. The episode concludes with a reflection on the nature of luck and skill in stock picking, along with a lighthearted celebration of the hosts' performances.
Key Insights
- Mining stocks, particularly those focused on silver, saw exceptional performance in 2025, with Fresnio achieving a 379% increase, driven by a high beta relationship to gold and a year-end short squeeze.
- Quantum computing stocks, such as D-Wave Quantum, were popular but did not match the returns of silver mining stocks, highlighting the sector's volatility and speculative nature.
- Shorting large tech companies like NVIDIA and Alphabet resulted in losses, as these companies continued to perform strongly despite market volatility.
- European defense companies delivered strong returns, contributing to Katie Martin's fourth-place finish within the FT's stock picking contest.