The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions - Ep. 998 - Unchained Recap

Podcast: Unchained

Published: 2026-01-08

Duration: 1 hr 8 min

Guests: Tom Schmidt, Robert Leshner, Tarun Chitra, Haseeb Qureshi

Summary

The episode reviews the biggest winners and losers in the crypto industry for 2025 and forecasts for 2026. Key topics include the rise of prediction markets, Ethereum's leadership changes, and surprising IPOs.

What Happened

The episode opens with a debate over the biggest winners of 2025, with Robert Leshner identifying companies involved in mergers and acquisitions as the frontrunners. Tom Schmidt highlights the mainstream success of prediction markets, especially polymarket, as a significant development. Tarun Chitra notes the growth of on-chain crypto derivatives platforms like Perpetuals DEXs as a key success story.

A major topic is the downfall of altcoins and the dismantling of Gary Gensler's SEC policies, which Haseeb Qureshi describes as a significant loss for the crypto sector. Tarun Chitra expresses skepticism about the Web3 thesis, citing the decline in the NFT market and lack of new IP tokenization as indicators of its failure.

Among the biggest surprises of 2025, the Circle IPO stands out, briefly surpassing Coinbase in market cap. Tom Schmidt also mentions Tempo, a new payment system consortium, as a noteworthy unexpected development due to its significant backing by large companies.

Ethereum's pivot under new leadership, highlighted by Haseeb Qureshi, restored optimism in the community, marking another surprise of the year. The resurgence of ICOs in a more structured manner is noted as one of the best new mechanisms, while federal preemption allowed prediction markets to operate across all states, as emphasized by Robert Leshner.

The episode also discusses notable flops, such as AI agents losing steam and Berachain's dramatic fall with its token dropping 90% since launch. Bitcoin is labeled a flop for 2025 by Robert Leshner, as it underperformed despite favorable macro conditions.

The hosts reflect on their 2025 predictions, admitting that many did not come to fruition, and lay out fresh forecasts for 2026. Predictions include AI-powered hacks worth $100M+, stablecoin-funded AI capital expenditures, and equity perps taking over 20% of DeFi volume.

Looking forward to 2026, there is a sense of optimism with institutions and developers expected to play a significant role. The episode ends on a hopeful note, with Robert Leshner expressing confidence that the upcoming year will be promising for the crypto ecosystem.

Key Insights