488. Is Iran on the Edge of Revolution? - The Rest Is Politics Recap

Podcast: The Rest Is Politics

Published: 2026-01-13

Duration: 44 minutes

Guests: Rory Stewart, Alistair Campbell

Summary

The episode examines the potential of ongoing protests in Iran to lead to a significant political change and the broader geopolitical implications, including tensions in Yemen and the Arctic.

What Happened

Iran is experiencing a wave of protests, with over 200 separate events occurring across nearly all provinces. These demonstrations were triggered by economic challenges, including gas price hikes and currency collapse, leading to severe scarcity of goods. Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell discuss the Iranian regime's brutal crackdown involving media blackouts and killings to suppress the unrest. Despite this, the protests have gained traction with a diverse demographic, including the support of the Iranian Crown Prince promoting democracy from abroad.

The episode delves into historical context, noting that past uprisings in Iran, such as those in 1999, 2005, and 2022-23, have not succeeded in changing the regime due to its strong powers of repression. The regime's ideology remains robust among its hardline supporters, notably the Revolutionary Guard. However, the Iranian army may defect due to lesser ideological commitment, which could alter the balance of power.

Trump's threat of military intervention if the Iranian regime continues its repression adds an international dimension to the crisis. This potential U.S. involvement raises questions about what a Trump-style plan might entail, drawing parallels with past U.S. foreign policy actions.

In Yemen, tensions have escalated between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, further complicating the humanitarian crisis that has plagued the country since the Houthis took control of Sana'a in 2014. The conflict between UAE-backed and Saudi-backed factions highlights the intricate geopolitical dynamics in the region.

The hosts also touch upon the Arctic's geopolitical significance, with Russia maintaining a dominant military presence. This includes a significant fleet of icebreakers and cold-weather operations expertise, positioning Russia as a formidable force in the region, which has strategic implications for climate change and resource accessibility.

Finally, the conversation explores the transformative potential of AI, with developments concentrated in the U.S. and China. AI's capacity to outperform humans in fields like coding and radiology raises concerns about its impact on employment and inequality, marking it as a major technological shift.

Key Insights

• Iran is experiencing widespread protests with over 200 events across nearly all provinces, triggered by economic challenges like gas price hikes and currency collapse, leading to severe scarcity of goods.
• The Iranian regime's strong powers of repression, supported by the Revolutionary Guard's hardline ideology, have historically prevented successful uprisings, but the Iranian army's potential defection could alter the balance of power.
• Trump's threat of military intervention in Iran adds an international dimension to the crisis, raising questions about potential U.S. involvement and its implications on global politics.
• Russia maintains a dominant military presence in the Arctic with a significant fleet of icebreakers and cold-weather operations expertise, impacting geopolitical dynamics and resource accessibility in the region.