After Venezuela, Is Cuba Next? - The Daily Recap
Podcast: The Daily
Published: 2026-02-17
Duration: 32 minutes
Guests: Frances Robles, Michael Crowley
Summary
The episode explores the U.S. strategy under the Trump administration to destabilize Cuba's government by targeting its oil supply, following the ousting of Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro.
What Happened
Frances Robles, a New York Times correspondent, discusses the current crisis in Cuba, noting its dependence on oil imports and how U.S. tariffs have led to severe shortages. This latest U.S. strategy aims to topple the Cuban regime by creating unsustainable conditions. The conversation highlights Cuba's historical resilience, surviving past crises by leveraging Soviet support and, later, Venezuelan oil. Robles recalls the Mariel Boatlift as an example of Cuba's strategy to release internal pressure by allowing mass emigration. The episode then explores the Obama administration's opposite approach of engagement, which was reversed under Trump. Michael Crowley explains how Marco Rubio's influence has been central to the Trump administration's Cuban policy, viewing the fall of Venezuela's Maduro as a strategic move to weaken Cuba. Crowley also discusses the complexities of regime change in Cuba, noting the lack of a viable opposition and the risks of chaos. The episode concludes with insights into the Trump administration's goals and the potential for significant geopolitical impacts if successful.
Key Insights
- Cuba's survival through past economic crises relied heavily on external support, first from the Soviet Union and later from Venezuelan oil. The current U.S. strategy of imposing tariffs aims to create unsustainable conditions by targeting this dependency, drawing parallels to the pressure exerted during the Cold War.
- The Mariel Boatlift of 1980, when Cuba allowed over 125,000 citizens to emigrate to the United States, served as a release valve for internal tensions. This historical precedent suggests that Cuba might again use emigration as a tool to manage domestic pressure amid current crises.
- Marco Rubio's influence on the Trump administration's policy towards Cuba aligns with his broader goal of destabilizing Venezuela's Maduro regime. By weakening Venezuela, which supplies vital resources to Cuba, the U.S. aims to indirectly collapse the Cuban government.
- Despite the Trump administration's aggressive stance, the lack of a coherent opposition within Cuba poses a significant challenge to any potential regime change. The absence of alternative leadership risks creating chaos rather than a smooth transition, complicating U.S. objectives.
Key Questions Answered
How does The Daily explain the U.S. strategy against Cuba?
The Daily outlines the U.S. strategy as leveraging economic pressure through oil supply restrictions to create unsustainable conditions in Cuba, aiming for regime change.
What role does Marco Rubio play in the Trump administration's Cuba policy according to The Daily?
Marco Rubio, as a key influence, has shaped the Trump administration's focus on destabilizing Cuba by leveraging Venezuela's fall to reduce Cuba's oil imports.
Why is the Cuban regime currently vulnerable as discussed on The Daily?
The Cuban regime is vulnerable due to acute fuel shortages after losing Venezuelan oil imports and facing U.S. tariffs, leading to a humanitarian crisis.