The Oscar Noms Mailbag: Is ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After Another’ a Race? Plus: Best Picture Power Rankings. - The Big Picture Recap

Podcast: The Big Picture

Published: 2026-01-28

Duration: 1 hr 52 min

Guests: Sean Fennessey, Amanda Dobbins

Summary

Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins analyze the impact of recent Oscar nominations, debating whether 'Sinners' has a real chance of winning Best Picture over 'One Battle After Another'. They explore the dynamics of the preferential ballot system and update their Best Picture power rankings.

What Happened

Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins kick off the episode by discussing the recent box office slump, attributed partially to severe storms that led to the closure of 400 theaters. 'Mercy' managed to dethrone 'Avatar Fire and Ash' after its five-week reign, while 'Bone Temple' experienced a significant 70% drop, raising questions about the feasibility of its sequel.

The hosts dive into the Oscar nominations, noting surprises and omissions such as Park Chan Wook's 'No Other Choice' being overlooked in favor of 'Surat' for the international feature category. Amanda Seyfried's performance in 'Testament of Ann Lee' is praised as outstanding but was not recognized by the Oscars, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the nominations.

There is a lively debate over the potential for 'Sinners' to win Best Picture over 'One Battle After Another', with 'Sinners' receiving 16 nominations. The preferential ballot system is discussed as a factor that could lead to unexpected outcomes when two films are highly favored, given the same studio backs both films, complicating their campaigns.

The episode explores how the changing demographics of the Academy could influence voting patterns, with younger actors like Timothée Chalamet seen as favorable candidates due to their traditional Oscar roles. The cultural impact of 'One Battle After Another' is considered significant, although it might overshadow its performances.

Fennessey and Dobbins discuss the logistics of hosting an Oscars viewing party, emphasizing the importance of no talking during the broadcast and the role of the host in setting the tone for the evening. They also touch on the expansion of Best Picture nominations from five to ten, aiming to include more films in the award conversation.

The idea of revising Oscar categories is floated, such as having more acting awards or introducing a 'one-shot award' for impactful scenes. There is also a suggestion to make the Oscars a two-day event to accommodate more awards, reflecting the evolving nature of the ceremony.

The global appeal of films like 'Eddington', which critiques American society, is mentioned, as well as the diminishing influence of fall festivals as a launchpad for Best Picture contenders. Cannes is noted as gaining more influence in the Oscar race compared to two decades ago.

Finally, the hosts update their Best Picture power rankings, with 'One Battle After Another' currently leading the pack. They note the importance of supporting actor and actress awards as indicators of a film's strength in the Oscars race.

Key Insights