The Donroe Doctrine in Iran - pucks-the-powers-that-be Recap

Podcast: pucks-the-powers-that-be

Published: 2026-01-13

Duration: 22 minutes

Guests: Julia Ioffe

Summary

The episode examines Iran's political unrest and potential U.S. intervention under Trump, alongside a State Department HR director's meltdown.

What Happened

The episode opens with host Peter Hamby and guest Julia Ioffe discussing the mass demonstrations and severe state repression ongoing in Iran. They consider the geopolitical implications of these events and the possibility of the Trump administration pursuing regime change, especially following Trump's success with the arrest of Nicolás Maduro. Ioffe explains that Trump's recent foreign policy actions have been quick and effective, suggesting he might be encouraged to intervene in Iran where the regime is already weakened.

They delve into the complexities of a potential regime collapse in Iran, questioning who might fill the power vacuum if the Ayatollah's regime were to fall. Ioffe mentions conversations with Iranian exiles who are divided on what a post-regime Iran might look like, noting that there is little support for Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah.

The discussion shifts to the internal dynamics within the State Department, focusing on an incident involving Lew Olowski, the Trump-appointed HR director. Olowski, known for his eccentric behavior and controversial management style, experienced a significant meltdown at his farewell party after being denied a desired assignment.

Ioffe provides background on Olowski, describing his rise during Trump's first term and his reputation within the State Department for odd decisions, such as revisiting past promotions and changing font policies deemed too inclusive. His meltdown has become a source of widespread amusement and relief among foreign service officers who were impacted by his policies.

The episode highlights the broader theme of unconventional figures gaining influence under the Trump administration, often leading to erratic and controversial outcomes. Ioffe recounts various anecdotes and the widespread schadenfreude among State Department staff regarding Olowski's downfall.

To conclude, the discussion touches on the potential strategic shifts in U.S. foreign policy if Iran's regime falls, emphasizing the uncertainty and risks involved in such a geopolitical move.

Key Insights

• Mass demonstrations in Iran are met with severe state repression, raising questions about potential U.S. intervention under the Trump administration, especially after the arrest of Nicolás Maduro.
• Iranian exiles are divided on the future of Iran if the current regime collapses, with little support for Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah, as a potential leader.
• Lew Olowski, a Trump-appointed HR director at the State Department, became infamous for his eccentric management style, including revisiting past promotions and implementing controversial font policies.
• The potential fall of Iran's regime could lead to significant strategic shifts in U.S. foreign policy, though the outcomes remain uncertain and fraught with risks.