Bitcoin Is Closer to a Breakout Than People Think | Dan Ives - The Pomp Podcast Recap

Podcast: The Pomp Podcast

Published: 2026-02-13

Duration: 22 minutes

Guests: Dan Ives

Summary

Dan Ives argues that the recent tech stock selloff is disconnected from fundamentals, suggesting a bullish outlook for AI and U.S. tech stocks. He highlights the ongoing fourth industrial revolution driven by AI CapEx, noting the structural advantage of U.S. tech firms.

What Happened

Dan Ives emphasizes that the belief that the software sector is in decline is the most misguided call he's seen in his career. Companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Oracle, and Microsoft are foundational to the AI revolution. While the current use cases are limited, significant advancements are expected in the next 6 to 18 months.

He notes the AI CapEx is validating this fourth industrial revolution, citing $650 to $700 billion spent this year alone. This investment indicates a long-term bull cycle for tech stocks, which he believes will see another 20% increase.

Ives discusses the pessimism surrounding U.S. software companies, suggesting that critics often wait for a bubble to burst. However, he argues that the U.S. is ahead of global competitors, particularly China, in tech advancements, driven by companies like Palantir and MongoDB.

The conversation touches on the ripple effect of tech growth on other sectors like financials and healthcare. Ives projects that S&P 500 could see gains as tech continues to impact broader markets, making current market dips potential buying opportunities.

The relationship between AI and Bitcoin is explored, with Ives suggesting that the recent crypto selloff reflects a broader risk-off sentiment affecting tech investors. He believes the two are interconnected, particularly as blockchain utilities develop.

Ives is optimistic about robotics, seeing it as a force that will create more jobs than it displaces. He highlights the innovation renaissance in the U.S., drawing parallels to post-World War II economic growth.

He predicts a future where Tesla could merge with SpaceX, as Musk works towards a unified vision across his companies. This consolidation is seen as part of a broader trend where companies need to anticipate and adapt to technological shifts.

Finally, Ives expresses confidence in the growth of Bitcoin as an asset class, asserting that its potential use cases, particularly in blockchain, underpin a bullish outlook for both tech and crypto.

Key Insights

• Believing the software sector is in decline is a major misstep, according to Dan Ives. Companies like Microsoft and Oracle are not just surviving but are crucial to the AI revolution, with anticipated advancements in the next 6 to 18 months.
• This year alone, $650 to $700 billion in AI CapEx signals a long-term bull cycle for tech stocks, potentially leading to a 20% increase. This contrasts with the prevalent narrative expecting a market correction.
• Many anticipate a tech bubble burst, but U.S. companies like Palantir and MongoDB maintain a competitive edge over global players, particularly China. This advantage is pivotal in driving tech advancements.
• The recent crypto selloff may not just be about Bitcoin; it's tied to a broader risk-off sentiment affecting tech investors. As blockchain utilities evolve, Bitcoin's growth as an asset class remains a bullish prospect.

Key Questions Answered

What does Dan Ives say about the future of AI on The Pomp Podcast?

Dan Ives believes that AI CapEx is driving a fourth industrial revolution, with substantial investments indicating a multi-year tech bull cycle. He sees U.S. tech companies as foundational to this transformation.

How does Dan Ives view the relationship between AI and Bitcoin?

Dan Ives suggests that AI and Bitcoin are connected through a broader risk-off sentiment among investors. He believes that as blockchain utilities develop, these sectors will increasingly influence each other.

Why does Dan Ives think U.S. tech is structurally ahead?

Ives argues that U.S. tech firms, with leaders like Palantir and MongoDB, are years ahead of global competitors like China. He attributes this to the U.S.'s leadership in tech, driven by significant AI advancements.