Lots More on the Protests and Financial Crisis in Iran - Odd Lots Recap

Podcast: Odd Lots

Published: 2026-01-16

Duration: 22 minutes

Guests: Maciej Wojtal

Summary

The episode examines the complexities of the ongoing civil unrest in Iran, focusing on the economic factors driving the protests and the government's response, including the impact of sanctions and currency collapse on the Iranian economy.

What Happened

The episode begins with an overview of the current civil unrest in Iran, highlighting the difficulties in obtaining accurate information due to the government's internet blackout. The protests have reportedly resulted in thousands of deaths, although exact figures are hard to confirm. This blackout has also led to uncertainties in the financial markets, with questions about whether the Iranian stock market is even operational.

Maciej Wojtal, the founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, shares insights gathered from his team's limited communication with contacts in Iran. He explains that the stock market's status is unclear, and even essential services like ATMs and internet-based communications have been disrupted. Wojtal's team, partially based in London, has been able to maintain some contact with their colleagues in Iran, albeit under challenging conditions.

The conversation shifts to the uniqueness of the current protests compared to previous ones, with Wojtal noting a shift in demographics and motivations. He compares the situation to historical examples like Poland's transition away from Soviet control, suggesting that while change may not be immediate, the dynamics feel different this time. The protests are driven largely by economic hardships, such as inflation and currency devaluation, rather than solely social freedoms.

Wojtal explains that the Iranian economy is suffering due to sanctions that have severely limited access to foreign currency, impacting businesses and leading to widespread economic distress. He highlights the role of the 'bazaaris,' or market traders, who are experiencing unprecedented difficulties due to these sanctions.

The discussion touches on the devaluation of the Iranian rial, which has plummeted in value, exacerbating the economic challenges faced by ordinary Iranians. The collapse of a major bank, due to corruption and mismanagement, has further fueled public anger and protests.

Wojtal speculates on possible scenarios for the future, noting that while regime change is uncertain, economic pressures may force some form of change. He mentions the example of Venezuela as a possible parallel, where change occurred without a complete overthrow of the government.

The episode concludes with an acknowledgment of the unpredictable nature of the situation, both in Iran and in international responses, such as the United States' recent interactions with Iran. Wojtal suggests that while short-term developments are hard to predict, the underlying pressures could lead to significant changes over time.

Key Insights