Nukes of hazard: US-Russia arms treaty expires - The Intelligence from The Economist Recap

Podcast: The Intelligence from The Economist

Published: 2026-02-05

Duration: 25 minutes

Guests: Anton LaGuardia, Carla Subirana

Summary

The expiration of the New START treaty between the US and Russia marks the end of an era in arms control, potentially leading to a new nuclear arms race. The episode also explores the rise of cults facilitated by social media and societal anxieties surrounding baldness and male cosmetic surgery.

What Happened

The expiration of the New START treaty between the United States and Russia signals the end of a long-standing effort to control nuclear arsenals. Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev originally signed the treaty in 2010 to limit the number of strategic warheads and missiles. However, its expiration now opens the door for a new arms race, with Russia, America, and China as central players.

The narrow legal reason for the treaty's non-renewal is that it allowed only for one extension, which Joe Biden enacted. However, the war in Ukraine has further strained relations, leading to the cessation of verification measures by both the US and Russia in 2023. This has contributed to the treaty's decline, with Russia utilizing the threat of nuclear escalation to deter America and the world.

The rise of China as a nuclear power complicates the situation further. Under Xi Jinping, China's nuclear arsenal has grown from approximately 240 warheads in 2012 to an estimated 600, with projections to surpass 1,000 by 2030. China's motivations include countering American influence over Taiwan and the desire to be recognized as a significant world power.

The potential for a new arms race expands beyond these three major powers, with countries like India and Pakistan possibly increasing their arsenals in response. This could destabilize global security, making it challenging to find a new arms control agreement that accommodates multiple influential powers.

Social media's role in cult recruitment is also discussed, with the internet changing how cults operate. Unlike traditional religious cults, many modern cults disguise themselves as wellness organizations, exploiting vulnerable individuals online. This shift has led to a significant increase in cult activity worldwide.

The episode touches on societal pressures related to baldness and male beauty standards. With the rise of dating apps and social media, men face increased anxiety about their appearance, leading some to seek cosmetic surgery solutions like hair transplants. This anxiety is less about being bald and more about the process of balding itself.

Key Insights

• The New START treaty, originally signed in 2010, limited the number of strategic nuclear warheads and missiles for the United States and Russia, but its expiration now paves the way for a potential new arms race among major powers.
• China's nuclear arsenal has expanded significantly under Xi Jinping, growing from approximately 240 warheads in 2012 to an estimated 600, with expectations to exceed 1,000 by 2030, driven by strategic motivations including countering American influence over Taiwan.
• The expiration of the New START treaty and the cessation of verification measures between the US and Russia in 2023 have been exacerbated by strained relations due to the war in Ukraine, increasing the risk of nuclear escalation.
• Modern cults have adapted to the digital age by masquerading as wellness organizations online, which has led to a significant rise in cult activity as they exploit vulnerable individuals through social media.