Check in Kyiv: prospects for peace? - The Intelligence from The Economist Recap

Podcast: The Intelligence from The Economist

Published: 2026-02-12

Duration: 23 minutes

Guests: Oliver Carroll, Claire McQue, Sonny Loughran

Summary

Despite ongoing conflict in Ukraine, there is cautious optimism about potential peace negotiations as both sides show signs of movement. However, unresolved issues like security guarantees and territorial demands remain significant hurdles.

What Happened

As the conflict in Ukraine nears its fourth year, the situation remains grim with continuous shellings and drone attacks, severely impacting civilian life. A recent attack on a passenger train highlights the brutality of the ongoing war. Despite this, there is a glimmer of hope in American-led peace talks, particularly with the idea of a demilitarized zone being cautiously entertained by both parties.

Oliver Carroll, the Ukraine correspondent, notes that while there is no breakthrough yet, Russia is demonstrating a more constructive approach in negotiations compared to previous attempts. Key sticking points include security guarantees akin to NATO's Article 5 and territorial disputes over the Donbass region.

On the ground, the battlefield situation remains dire. Russia continues to make slow advances, but at a significant cost in human lives. Ukraine's strategic resilience is tested not just by frontline clashes but also by relentless attacks on its energy infrastructure, posing a severe challenge to the country's survival.

Civilian fatigue is evident, with opinion polls indicating a growing willingness among Ukrainians to consider compromises for peace. The plight of those in Russian-occupied territories is particularly dire, as they navigate limited humanitarian corridors under harsh conditions.

Ukraine's leadership faces complex decisions, with rumors of elections and pressures from international allies like the United States. The potential outcomes of peace talks range from a temporary ceasefire to a broader geopolitical shift involving EU membership and economic sanctions.

In Colombia, Claire McQue reports on the ongoing war on drugs, highlighting a police mission to destroy coca labs in the Amazon. Despite significant efforts and resources, cocaine production remains at record levels, driven by global demand and complex local dynamics.

Sonny Loughran addresses the misconception of rising crime in London, showing that despite viral social media posts, violent crime has been declining. The perception is fueled by political rhetoric and social media algorithms, rather than actual data, which reveal that London is safer than many other major cities.

Key Insights

• That despite Russia's relentless offensive in Ukraine, there's a sliver of hope in peace talks led by the US. Both sides are cautiously considering a demilitarized zone - an idea that seemed impossible a year ago.
• Russia's showing an unexpected shift toward constructive negotiation, even as they continue to push into the Donbass. The twist? They're contemplating security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5, a major concession if it happens.
• Ukraine's energy infrastructure is under constant attack, yet the country's spirit remains unbroken. Their resilience isn't just about surviving the frontline but also enduring a war on their power supply, a survival tactic that's redefining modern warfare.
• Ukrainians are weary, and polls suggest they're more open to compromises for peace. In Russian-occupied areas, the situation is dire, with civilians navigating scant humanitarian corridors - an everyday reality that's reshaping public sentiment.