The SpaceX IPO could finally happen (and it's a big deal) - Equity Recap

Podcast: Equity

Published: 2026-01-28

Duration: 29 minutes

Guests: Greg Martin

Summary

SpaceX is preparing for a 2026 IPO that could significantly impact the market. The IPO could be valued at $1.5 trillion, potentially sparking interest in other late-stage unicorns.

What Happened

SpaceX is gearing up for a potential IPO in 2026, having already lined up four major Wall Street banks. This move comes after SpaceX completed a tender offer valuing the company at $800 billion, with strong demand in the secondary market. If SpaceX goes public at its rumored $1.5 trillion valuation, it could catalyze an IPO wave for other late-stage unicorns like OpenAI and Stripe.

Greg Martin, Managing Director at Rainmaker Securities, explains why this IPO feels different from others. He highlights the robust secondary market where tech employees are cashing out before companies like SpaceX go public. Martin notes that SpaceX's IPO might be a 'sliver deal', potentially raising $100 billion at a $2 trillion market cap.

Elon Musk's decision to take SpaceX public marks a shift from his previous stance of waiting until rockets were flying to Mars regularly. This change is possibly driven by the AI trade and the need for more capital, despite the company's dominance in the rocket launching business and the burgeoning Starlink venture.

The 'Elon halo effect' plays a significant role in SpaceX's valuation, with Musk's involvement boosting investor confidence. This effect is evident as SpaceX continues to defy market trends, even during downturns when other companies struggled.

SpaceX conducts tender offers multiple times a year, providing liquidity for employees through secondary markets. Most SpaceX trading takes place through Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), rather than direct trades on the cap table.

Investors are keenly interested in pre-IPO shares, and SpaceX's potential public offering could serve as a bellwether for the market, drawing more attention to private companies. There is also substantial secondary market demand for companies like Databricks, Stripe, and ByteDance.

Key Insights