Investing in the consumer AI products OpenAI ‘won’t want to kill’ - Equity Recap

Podcast: Equity

Published: 2026-01-07

Duration: 32 minutes

Guests: Vanessa Larco

Summary

Vanessa Larco predicts significant growth for consumer AI by 2026, focusing on services that OpenAI won't pursue, such as those requiring real human management. The episode explores how AI might transform legacy apps and the potential for startups to carve out niches in this evolving landscape.

What Happened

Vanessa Larco, partner at Premise and former partner at NEA, shares her perspective on the future of consumer AI, predicting 2026 as a pivotal year. She believes AI will shift consumer online behavior towards 'concierge-like' services, potentially absorbing legacy platforms like WebMD and TripAdvisor into AI ecosystems like ChatGPT or Meta AI. However, she sees opportunities for startups in areas where AI cannot easily manage, such as real-world assets like homes and cars.

Larco argues that OpenAI is unlikely to enter businesses that involve managing real human assets, leaving space for startups to innovate in these sectors. This suggests a significant opportunity for AI startups to disrupt incumbents like Uber or Airbnb by offering new, AI-driven experiences. OpenAI's plan to launch an app store and potentially take a 30% cut of transactions mirrors Apple's App Store model, offering a new monetization strategy for AI applications.

The concept of 'disposable software' is gaining traction, with platforms like Wabi allowing users to create personalized, temporary apps. Larco compares these software solutions to Word docs, emphasizing their temporary nature and ease of creation. This shift could radically change how consumers interact with software, focusing on short-term utility rather than long-term investment.

The episode also touches on social media's evolution in the AI era, with AI-generated content likely to become more prevalent. Larco notes that the landscape may shift towards entertainment-focused platforms, as users gravitate towards content that amuses or engages them, moving away from traditional social media interactions.

Meta's acquisition of Manus and the integration of AI into Ray-Ban smart glasses further illustrate this trend. These wearables allow users to interact with the digital world through voice commands and gestures, reducing reliance on screens for tasks like taking photos or making calls.

In the financial sector, stablecoins present opportunities to cut transaction costs significantly. While banks are cautious, they are also proactive in building infrastructure to avoid being sidelined as they were during the cryptocurrency rise. This proactive stance marks a shift in how financial institutions approach new technologies.

Finally, Larco predicts a major year for mergers and acquisitions in 2026, with companies like Meta becoming increasingly acquisitive. This activity could pressure other tech giants to follow suit, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape.

Key Insights