Nicolás caged: what next for Venezuela? - The Economist Podcasts Recap

Podcast: The Economist Podcasts

Published: 2026-01-05

Duration: 25 minutes

Guests: Shoshong Joshi, Hal Hodson

Summary

The Trump administration's surprise military operation to depose Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro highlights America's strategic focus on Western Hemisphere dominance, raising questions about the future leadership of Venezuela and regional stability.

What Happened

In a dramatic turn of events, American special forces conducted a surprise nighttime raid to depose Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, capturing him and his wife as part of an operation dubbed 'Operation Absolute Resolve'. This was described as one of the most complex military operations in recent years, involving stealthy helicopter flights by the elite 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment.

The Trump administration aims to maintain control over Venezuela until a proper transition can occur, naming Maduro's vice president, Dulcie Rodriguez, as a partner in stabilizing the country. However, questions remain about the effectiveness of this approach, as America's history with regime changes through brute force has been inconsistent.

This move is seen as a demonstration of America's determination to assert dominance in the Western Hemisphere. President Trump has mentioned other countries in the region, including Colombia and Cuba, as potential areas of interest, raising concerns among Latin American leaders about America's military capabilities.

The operation echoes America's past interventions, such as the 1989 Panama invasion to capture Manuel Noriega, but differs in scale and execution. Despite the military success, it remains unclear whether America's political objectives in Venezuela will be achieved, as the regime's key figures remain in power.

Trump's decision to work with Dulcie Rodriguez, rather than the Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who had previously won the 2024 election, suggests a preference to engage with existing power structures rather than promote a democratic transition.

The operation underscores America's interest in Venezuela's vast oil reserves, with Trump focusing on economic gains rather than addressing the purported drug-running concerns that initially justified the military buildup in the Caribbean.

The future of Venezuela under American influence remains uncertain, as Rodriguez's willingness to cooperate with the U.S. may change over time, especially as political pressures mount in the lead-up to American midterm elections. The geopolitical implications of this operation may extend beyond Venezuela, affecting U.S. relations with other countries in the region.

Key Insights

• Operation Absolute Resolve involved American special forces conducting a nighttime raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, utilizing the elite 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment for stealthy helicopter flights.
• The Trump administration appointed Maduro's vice president, Dulcie Rodriguez, as a partner in stabilizing Venezuela, opting to engage with existing power structures rather than supporting opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who won the 2024 election.
• The operation is seen as part of America's strategy to assert dominance in the Western Hemisphere, with potential implications for other countries like Colombia and Cuba, raising concerns among Latin American leaders about U.S. military intentions.
• Despite the military success of capturing Maduro, the political objectives in Venezuela remain uncertain as key regime figures are still in power, and the operation's focus on economic gains from Venezuela's oil reserves overshadows initial drug-running concerns.