Generals’ selection: Myanmar’s sham poll - The Economist Podcasts Recap

Podcast: The Economist Podcasts

Published: 2025-12-29

Duration: 21 minutes

Guests: Aaron Connolly

Summary

Myanmar's military junta is holding an election seen as a sham, banning credible opposition while rebels face intensified military tactics and external pressures.

What Happened

Myanmar's military is holding an election, viewed widely as illegitimate, five years after seizing power in a coup. Demonstrators, including Teza Ahsan, a key protest leader, have openly opposed the election, risking their safety to condemn the junta's actions.

The political landscape in Myanmar has shifted drastically since the military's brutal suppression of protests in 2021. Young people have allied with ethnic armed groups in the borderlands, attempting to resist military rule, but recent developments have weakened their position.

China, initially supporting some ethnic armed groups, has withdrawn its backing, fearing instability that could impact its investments. This has severely limited access to resources for these groups, who now face supply shortages and pressure from China.

The closure of USAID under Donald Trump has also strained the resources of armed groups, forcing them to divert military spending to humanitarian aid. This has weakened their ability to maintain control in regions like Karenji, where they have lost significant territory to the junta.

The military has adapted its tactics, using conscripts in human wave attacks based on Russian advice and employing new aerial strategies, including Chinese UAVs and motorized paragliders, to counter the rebels.

The election is seen as a potential internal maneuver within the military to replace the current leader, Min Aung Hlaing, who is blamed for recent losses. Regional diplomatic efforts hinge on the hope of dealing with new leadership post-election.

ASEAN has suspended Myanmar's junta from membership, sidestepping its input on regional decisions, yet some members seek re-engagement opportunities with a potential leadership change. Local revolutionaries, however, remain skeptical of any meaningful change resulting from the election.

Key Insights

• Myanmar's military is using conscripts in human wave attacks and employing Chinese UAVs and motorized paragliders as part of new aerial strategies to counter rebel forces.
• China's withdrawal of support from ethnic armed groups in Myanmar has led to severe supply shortages for these groups, impacting their ability to resist the military junta.
• The closure of USAID under Donald Trump has forced ethnic armed groups in Myanmar to divert military spending to humanitarian aid, weakening their control in regions like Karenji.
• ASEAN has suspended Myanmar's junta from membership, excluding it from regional decisions, although some members are considering re-engagement if there is a leadership change post-election.