6 Predictions for 2026 That Could Reshape the Economy and Housing Market - BiggerPockets Real Estate Recap

Podcast: BiggerPockets Real Estate

Published: 2025-12-19

Duration: 34 minutes

Guests: Ben Miller

Summary

Ben Miller of Fundrise predicts that real estate has bottomed out, with high-end residential properties in less regulated areas poised for growth. He forecasts AI-driven deflation could lower wages and affect the economy, creating opportunities for certain real estate investments.

What Happened

Ben Miller, CEO of Fundrise, asserts that the real estate market has likely reached its lowest point, with potential for growth, especially in high-end residential properties in less regulated regions. This prediction comes despite the market's historical volatility. Miller also foresees a decline in interest rates, which could positively impact various real estate sectors.

Miller discusses how inflation, which has been stuck at around 3% for nearly two years, might decrease further due to technological advancements. He is skeptical about the reacceleration of the economy despite tax incentives and AI investments, noting that the largest impacts are confined to specific sectors like data centers.

The episode delves into the role of AI in the economy, highlighting its potential to suppress wage growth by replacing millions of jobs. Miller shares that Fundrise already uses AI to manage half of its customer service tasks, indicating a shift towards AI-driven efficiency.

Miller predicts a new economic era characterized by high productivity, lower inflation, and increased real interest rates. He suggests that corporate profits are rising while fewer workers are needed per dollar, leading to potential societal shifts in wealth distribution.

The concept of 'pre-distribution', such as rent control, is introduced as a way to address inequality by intervening in the workplace rather than through redistribution. However, Miller warns of potential bankruptcies in cities like New York due to stagnant rents and rising costs.

Miller advises against investing in office spaces due to ongoing challenges and job eliminations. Instead, he sees promise in high-end residential and rental housing markets in areas with less regulation, driven by wealth creation among the top 0.1% of the population.

Fundrise is developing RealAI, a new tool to aid in real estate investment analysis. This AI product aims to streamline research by providing comprehensive data and insights, potentially revolutionizing how investors evaluate properties and make decisions.

Overall, the episode emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on the economy and real estate market, with Miller providing a nuanced view of future opportunities and challenges.

Key Insights

• Real estate markets in less regulated regions, particularly high-end residential properties, are expected to see growth potential as the market bottoms out, despite historical volatility.
• AI's integration into the workforce is projected to suppress wage growth by replacing jobs, with Fundrise already utilizing AI for 50% of its customer service tasks.
• A new economic era may emerge with high productivity, lower inflation, and increased real interest rates, where corporate profits rise while requiring fewer workers per dollar.
• Fundrise is developing RealAI, a tool designed to enhance real estate investment analysis by providing comprehensive data and insights, aiming to streamline property evaluation and decision-making.