Tax the Billionaires (EP. 446) - Animal Spirits Recap

Podcast: Animal Spirits

Published: 2026-01-07

Duration: 1 hr 16 min

Summary

Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson explore predictions for 2026, focusing on economic risks, stock market performances, and the impact of AI technology. They also touch on the implications of taxation on billionaires and Disney's stock performance.

What Happened

Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss the economic outlook for 2026, citing a Gallup poll where 70% of people expect economic difficulties, while predictions about the stock market remain mixed. Batnick anticipates that interest rates may come down, potentially reopening the housing market, while Carlson believes the AI bubble will persist and interest rates will stabilize between 4-5%.

The hosts delve into the international stock market's performance, noting that the EFA outperformed the S&P 500 by 14% in 2025, marking a notable achievement since 1993. They highlight NVIDIA's significant influence on the market, suggesting that its exclusion shows better performance by European stocks.

The episode also touches upon recession predictions, which have decreased since 2022, with Carlson predicting no recession by 2026. Historical data shows that two-thirds of years since the 1920s have seen double-digit corrections in the stock market, a pattern Batnick expects to continue with a 20% correction in AI stocks.

On the technology front, the hosts discuss AI's role in job markets and the potential impacts of self-driving cars. Batnick mentions canceling his ChatGPT subscription due to inaccuracies, while Carlson highlights Waymo's progress, achieving 14 million trips in 2025 and projecting 20 million by year's end.

Disney's stock is scrutinized, with its parks and experiences being profitable, but Disney Plus acting as a financial drag. Over the last 30 years, Disney has underperformed compared to the S&P 500, despite significant growth in its parks segment.

The issue of a billionaire tax in California is raised, which could potentially cause an exodus of wealthy individuals from the state. The hosts also reflect on the entertainment industry, discussing recent films and the impressive viewership of NCIS and Netflix's dominance in movie viewing.

The episode concludes with a lighter note on personal anecdotes and cultural references, such as a painful cactus incident and a re-watching of classic movies. Batnick and Carlson offer their appreciation for Keanu Reeves, citing his role in 'Good Fortune' as a comedic highlight.

Key Insights

• The EFA index outperformed the S&P 500 by 14% in 2025, marking its most significant lead since 1993, largely due to the strong performance of European stocks when excluding NVIDIA's influence.
• Waymo completed 14 million self-driving car trips in 2025 and is on track to reach 20 million by the end of the year, indicating substantial progress in autonomous vehicle deployment.
• Disney's parks and experiences segment remains profitable, but Disney Plus has been a financial burden, contributing to the company's underperformance compared to the S&P 500 over the past 30 years.
• A proposed billionaire tax in California may lead to a significant migration of wealthy individuals out of the state, potentially impacting the state's economy and tax revenue.